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An Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria

An Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria

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DEDICATION

This research material, titled “An Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria” is dedicated to God for His boundless grace and guidance. It is also a tribute to all computer enthusiasts whose contributions made my research journey smoother and enriched my documentation process, making the experience truly fulfilling.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am profoundly grateful to everyone who contributed to the successful completion of this project. I am especially grateful to my Supervisor (Name), the Head of Department (Name), and the Lecturers in the Department of Economics for their invaluable guidance and support. I also acknowledge the contributions of authors and scholars whose works on An Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria provided essential insights. Special thanks go to my study area (and any funding organizations, if applicable) for their financial assistance. I am equally thankful to stakeholders, including mentors, teachers, and colleagues, for their encouragement and support. Finally, I deeply appreciate my family and friends for their patience and unwavering support throughout this journey. Your contributions have been instrumental in making this research a reality.



TABLE OF CONTENTS

PRELIMINARY PAGES

CHAPTER ONE:

  • Introduction
  • 1.1 Background of the study 1
  • 1.2 Statement of the problem 3
  • 1.3 Objectives of the study 4
  • 1.4 Research Hypothesis 4
  • 1.5 Importance of the study 5
  • 1.6 Scope and limitations of the study 6

CHAPTER TWO

  • 2.1 Literature Review 7
  • 2.2 Theoretical examination 7
  • 2.2.1 effects of inflation 11
  • 2.2.2 determinant of inflation in Nigeria 13
  • 2.3 empirical examination 16
  • 2.3.1 The Nigerian inflationary recent experience 17
  • 2.4 Limitations of the previous study. 20

CHAPTER THREE

  • 3.0 Research Methodology 22
  • 3.1 Research Design 22
  • 3.2 Methodology 22
  • 3.3 Specification Model 23
  • 3.4 Assessment Model 23
  • 3.5 Economic Criteria 24 A’priori
  • 3.6 Criteria statistics or first class 25
  • 3.7 Econometric Test Criteria or second order 26
  • 3.8 Data requirements and sources 27

CHAPTER FOUR:

  • Presentation And Data Analysis
  • 4.1 Presentation and interpretation of results 28
  • 4.2 Economic criteria a’priori 29
  • 4.3 statistical criteria (first control test) 30
  • 4.4 econometric criteria 33

CHAPTER FIVE

  • 5.1 Summary of Findings, Recommendations and Conclusion 38
  • 5.2 Recommendations 39
  • 5.3 Conclusion 40
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY 41
  • APPENDIX

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation in Nigeria between 1980 and 2012. The properties of time series variables were examined through the use of OLS, Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between inflation and money supply, government expenditure, exchange rate, and interest rate, cointegration and vector error correction techniques was also employed. The results of unit root suggested that all the variables in the model are stationary.

Inflation is stationary at level while money supply, government expenditure, exchange rate and interest rate are stationary at first difference. The results of Causality suggested causation between inflation and some of the included variables. The Johansen cointegration result shows that there existed long run relationship between inflation and the included variables. The VEC error correction result also confirmed the existence of long run relationship between the variables of the model with only money supply and exchange rate causing interest rate.

The OLS results revealed that money supply and interest rate influenced inflation positively, while government expenditure and exchange rate influenced inflation negatively. Therefore, a good performance of the economy in terms of price stability may therefore, be achieved by reducing money supply and interest rate and also increasing government expenditure and exchange rate in the country. A major policy implication of this study is that concerted effort should be made by policy makers to stabilize prices (inflation) by reducing money supply and interest rate as well as increasing government expenditure and exchange rate; most importantly increasing exchange rate and reducing interest rate.

Key words: Inflation, effects, Error Correction Method, co-integration, money supply


An Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

… As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Research hypothesis and questions, Limitation of the study and Definition of technical terms.…

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

This chapter focuses on the review of related literature. A literature review includes the current knowledge as well as theoretical and methodological contributions to a particular topic. It documents the state of the art with respect to the topic you are writing. It surveys the literature in the topic selected. In this research work the literature review includes the conceputal review, theoretical framework, the review of related literature …

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