1.1 Introduction
Product Price Forecasting is the ability to forecast future product price base on past months sales. Product Price Forecasting system uses several proven models such as qualitative versus quantitative model, average approach model, casual /econometrics forecasting model, linear regression model etc., these model are proven models use over the years by different financial institutes. Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and analysis of trends. Computerization of the store can remove wastage, guarantee quick service at service points of vital importance to the public and improve productivity. Such computerization effort often costs for less than the money and time it will save both the public and the organization.
As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.
1.2 Background of Study
Forecasting is fundamental in any planning effort (Chase, R. (2014). In the short term, forecast is needed to predict the material, products, services or other resources to respond to changes in demand. A forecast allows adjusting schedules and varying labor and materials. In the long run, it is required to predict the basis for strategic changes, such as the development of new markets, new products or services and expand or build new facilities.
Effective planning, in short and long term, depends on demand forecasts for the company products (Heizer, J. (2009). Good forecasts are crucial to all business aspects: Demand forecast is the only useful data until the actual demand is known. Therefore, demand forecasts guide decisions in many areas: human resources, capacity management and supply chain.
Sales and operations planning is a process that helps to provide better customer service, handling of lower inventories, offer shorter delivery time to customers, stabilize production rates and facilitate management business. It does not matter that, owing to changing markets, the chemicals supplying enterprises have troubles with operations scheduling and inventories management; they are a fundamental component in the national economy.
The chemicals supplying enterprises demands are highly variable in volume and presentation; their customers vary from a small hardware store, up to an auto assembler factory, passing through: pharmaceutical, chemical, petrochemical and polymer companies, paints and varnishes manufacturers, etc. In some companies, they handled up to 500 different materials and have up to 1000 clients; all of this complicates their operations planning.
Because of the above chemicals supplying enterprises problems, a system to forecast their sales with the best possible accuracy is proposed. The system, (algorithm and software) for the yearly or monthly sales prediction, calculates a possible sales number for each product using five techniques, evaluates the error of each of them and selects the lowest error technique; from which the sales forecast for each product is proposed. The goal is to make effective plans in order to properly satisfy the customer demands.
1.3 Statement of Problem
This research work was undertaken to uncover some of the problems with conventional Product Price Forecasting management systems, where accountant has to calculate using a specific sales model formula in forecasting on a regular basis. Using these conventional method poses lots of constraint on Product Price Forecasting as it takes lots of time forecasting using which ever model is adopted by the sales manager or accountant or financial adviser.
In every organization (ROBAN STORES) encounter numerous problems, which include keeping goods, maintaining, checking and having goods account records for gods in stock.
Despite the good maintenance in the manual stock control system at ROBAN STORES, there will arise great inefficiency in its accounting system, as well as its record updating system.
However, the main aim of this study is to incorporate computer into the daily operations of the store with reference to mainly it’s accounting system, as well as its stock control system and its day to day commercial operations. With introduction and application of computer into the operations of the STORE the organization will be able to improve dramatically on its daily information and accounting system.
The above problems discovered therefore prompted to a software design to be able to add to existing stock and delete goods in stock collectively referred to as updating, as well as producing an accurate accounting system for the STORE.
1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The aim of the study is to design and implement a Product Price Forecasting System. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows to design and develop an application software that will:
- Manage and forecast product price
- Automate customer, product, and supplier management on the system
- Manage system access and roles on the system
- Manage every users of the system
1.5 Significance of Study
In this research work will provide a reliable way of handling product price forecasting to forecast product prices in and financial institution. Furthermore, it will aids structural document representation and eliminates the tedium of performing monotonous transaction. This research will also contribute to existing literature in this area and will serve as a guild or blueprint for an undergraduate student. Product Price Forecasting system help organization to Predict achievable sales revenue, efficiently allocate resources, Plan for future growth etc. As your business grows, sales forecasts continue to be an important measurement of a company’s health. Wall Street measures the success of a company by how well it meets its quarterly sales forecasts and the overall effect of accurate Product Price Forecasting is a business that runs more efficiently, saving money on excess inventory, increasing profit and serving its customers better.
1.6 Scope of Study
The study focuses on the Design and Implementation of Product Price Forecasting System. The system will not incorporate in its development all the models use for product price forecasting but will focus only on the aforementioned models and functionalities. The system will not be responsible for any loss of data if its environment (network/system installed on) is corrupt.
1.7 Limitations of the Study
During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:
- Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
- Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
- Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
- Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet).
1.8 Definition of Terms
Algorithm: A logical of instructions, which are carried out in a fixed order to find the solution to a problem.
Computer: A system software package that converts a problem oriented language to the language a computer understands. It’s an electronic data processing machine which can store and process information at very high speeds.
Computerization: The use of computer to control an operation or system.
Data: These are units of observation which do not curvy any meaning
DOS: An operating system that uses disk devices for permanent storage.
Information: Consists of facts resulting from processed data, providing knowledge relating to events or situation.
