This study investigates the impact of VAT on the national revenue and economic growth of Nigeria. Problems associated with each sector of the economy in relation to VAT and their effects on economic growth were examined. Time series data used were obtained from Annual Reports and Accounts of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), CBN Statistical Bulletin and Collection Profile of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test was employed to ensure the stationarity of the data, while Johansen Co-integration is used to estimate whether short-run or long-run equilibrium relationship exist among the variables.
The causal relationship is tested using Granger Causality, Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to estimate the models and descriptive statistical method was adopted to trace its impact on economic growth. Sectoral contribution analysis of VAT revenue in the new millennium revealed that Government Sector had the highest overall contribution of 24.9%, followed by Oil and Minning Sector (the only leading productive sector with dramatical growth rate, portraying Nigeria as a mono-economy) with 24.7%, Service Sector (21.6%), Manufacturing Sector (with poor contribution of 16.7%), Financial Institution (5%), Commercial and Trading (3.5%), Building and Construction (3.2%) and Agric and Plantation with a ridiculous contribution of 0.1%. Also, findings reveal that VAT is the second highest significant source of federally collected revenue (FCR) out of the three important taxes in Nigeria.
A positive and insignificant correlation exists between VAT Revenue and real GDP. The impact of VAT on economic growth of Nigeria is insignificant as there are some problems inhibiting its potency. This study recommends that all identified problems and administrative loopholes should be plugged for VAT Revenue to contribute more significantly to economic growth of the country. This should be done on the realization that any action taken on either VAT Revenue or the GDP will take four years to become effective