1.1 Introduction
Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and analysis of trends. Computerization of the store can remove wastage, guarantee quick service at service points of vital importance to the public and improve productivity. Such computerization effort often costs for less than the money and time it will save both the public and the organization. Computers will remain an integral part of life; this is as a result of increasing number of areas where they have become indispensible. Worthy of note also is the fact that business decision making relies heavily on market competition, this makes market forecasting very important in business planning.
Market forecasting projects future numbers, characteristics and trends in your target market. It is of great importance to business owners, market practitioners, etc. As a new application emerges computer practitioners are challenged and new systems or applications that address these new identified problems are designed and implemented. Sometimes, post implementation requirements crop up making modifications to already developed applications inevitable or engendering the need for a new application that encompasses all the requirements altogether (Charles, 2001).
As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.
1.2 Background of Study
Online marketing have gained in popularity with the FOREX markets top on the list of trades that have been widely utilized. More formally, online marketing refer to any form of trading i.e. buying and selling including advertising that take place over the internet. Online markets are a way of making business more convenient for businesses which may be far away from one another. Through distant communication networks such as telecommunication, sub-sea optical fiber links and web programs over the internet framework these form of marketing have been made possible. In recent times there have been calls to make online marketing more intelligent, in particular helping businesses to survive stiff competition over the internet. We see this as a challenge since there is vast amount of online markets with a heavy presence on the internet.
Forecasting is fundamental in any planning effort (Chase, R. (2014). In the short term, forecast is needed to predict the material, products, services or other resources to respond to changes in demand. A forecast allows adjusting schedules and varying labor and materials. In the long run, it is required to predict the basis for strategic changes, such as the development of new markets, new products or services and expand or build new facilities.
Effective planning, in short and long term, depends on demand forecasts for the company products (Heizer, J. (2009). Good forecasts are crucial to all business aspects: Demand forecast is the only useful data until the actual demand is known. Therefore, demand forecasts guide decisions in many areas: human resources, capacity management and supply chain.
Sales and operations planning is a process that helps to provide better customer service, handling of lower inventories, offer shorter delivery time to customers, stabilize production rates and facilitate management business. It does not matter that, owing to changing markets, the chemicals supplying enterprises have troubles with operations scheduling and inventories management; they are a fundamental component in the national economy.
The chemicals supplying enterprises demands are highly variable in volume and presentation; their customers vary from a small hardware store, up to an auto assembler factory, passing through: pharmaceutical, chemical, petrochemical and polymer companies, paints and varnishes manufacturers, etc. In some companies, they handled up to 500 different materials and have up to 1000 clients; all of this complicates their operations planning.
Because of the above chemicals supplying enterprises problems, a system to forecast their sales with the best possible accuracy is proposed. The system, (algorithm and software) for the yearly or monthly sales prediction, calculates a possible sales number for each product using five techniques, evaluates the error of each of them and selects the lowest error technique; from which the sales forecast for each product is proposed. The goal is to make effective plans in order to properly satisfy the customer demands.
1.3 Statement of Problem
Investigation revealed that Statistical models have been useful in solving a variety of tasks. However, in online marketing forecasts this is yet to be fully realized. Thus, there is need to improve on existing models or invent new ones that can help online markets predict or forecast best market scenarios and avoid huge financial losses.
The above problems discovered therefore prompted to a software design to be able to add to existing stock and delete goods in stock collectively referred to as updating, as well as producing an accurate accounting system for the STORE.
1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The aim of the study is to design and implement an Automated Intelligent System for Online Market Forecasts Using Statistical Model. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows to design and develop an application software that will:
- Provide software interface for monitoring and control of online markets;
- Automate customer, product, and supplier management on the system;
- Enables business owners predict future business trends; and
- Improve existing statistical model for intelligently forecasting online market trends.
1.5 Significance of Study
This study will expand the already rich body of knowledge in online market forecast. It will be useful for businesses on the internet to accurately predict business trends for profit maximization and loss reduction. In this research work will provide a reliable way of handling product price forecasting to forecast product prices in and financial institution. Furthermore, it will aids structural document representation and eliminates the tedium of performing monotonous transaction.
This research will also contribute to existing literature in this area and will serve as a guild or blueprint for an undergraduate student. Automated Intelligent System for Online Market Forecasts Using Statistical Model help organization to predict achievable sales revenue, efficiently allocate resources, Plan for future growth etc. As your business grows, sales forecasts continue to be an important measurement of a company’s health. Wall Street measures the success of a company by how well it meets its quarterly sales forecasts and the overall effect of accurate Product Price Forecasting is a business that runs more efficiently, saving money on excess inventory, increasing profit and serving its customers better.
1.6 Scope of Study
The scope of this research is focused on the Design and Implementation of an Automated Intelligent System for Online Market Forecasts Using Statistical Model. This study is limited to online markets of goods and services.
1.7 Limitations of the Study
During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:
- Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
- Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
- Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
- Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet).
1.8 Definition of Terms
Computer: A system software package that converts a problem oriented language to the language a computer understands. It’s an electronic data processing machine which can store and process information at very high speeds.
Algorithm: A logical of instructions, which are carried out in a fixed order to find the solution to a problem.
