1.1 Introduction
Conflict is the incompatibility of goals and values between two or more parties in a relationship, combined with the attempt to control each other and antagonistic feelings towards each other. It is a state of discord caused by the actual or perceived opposition of needs, values and interests. Conflict usually exists whenever incompatible activities occur. An activity that is incompatible with another is one that prevents, blocks or interferes with the occurrence or effectiveness of the second activity. Climate change has the potentials of engendering conflicts and snowball the existing staggering population of refugees in the African continent. Africa is considered to be one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change and climate variability due to its geographical characteristic of vast semiarid areas, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and low adaptive capacity (FAO 2016).
As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Research hypothesis and questions, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.
1.2 Background of Study
Climate is a global phenomenon that affects all countries and regions in the world to a different extent. The general trend suggests an increase in global surface temperatures, but climate data of the twentieth first century shows that Africa is and will continuously be warming faster than the global average. Scholars are certain that there will be no generalized, single effect of climate change/variability on Africa, because of the long geographical stretch of the continent. The world ‘conflict’ is applicable from the instant the clash occurs. Even when it is described as a potential conflict, it is implying that there is already conflict of direction even though a clash has not occurred. As a result, conflict can occur whenever there is interaction. Accordingly, some authors such as Werz and Hoffman (2016) take an excessively alarmist approach (Gemenne 2011) in the estimates and predictions of numbers of environmental migrants, arguing that a high level of vulnerability coupled with demographic pressure will lead to the influx of climate migrants from vulnerable regions in sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. Other scholars, on the other hand, have raised concerns about the overemphasis on the importance of environmental stress as a major driver of migration from Africa (Omobowale et al. 2019; Zickgraf 2019).
Most analyses on the impacts of climate change that have influenced United Nation Frame Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreements focus on medium- to long-term projections of carbon emissions and forecasting models of global warming, and cover mainly countries and regions for which relevant data are readily available. This leaves out most developing countries and regions, particularly Africa, due to unavailable data and trajectories.
From an African perspective, this omission is serious and costly. Africa is considered most susceptible to climate change due to its vulnerability and inability to cope with the physical, human and socioeconomic consequences of climate extremes. Due to the limited relevance of past and current global climate change agreements to Africa’s climate and environmental problems, the hardest hit region has benefited least from the international climate change regime, which relates almost exclusively to funding and investments for green, low carbon growth. For example, Africa’s participation to date in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and carbon trading arrangements under the Kyoto Protocol has been minimal.
The incompatibility or differences may exist in reality or may only be perceived by the parties involved. Nonetheless, the opposing actions and the hostile emotions are very real hallmark between people in all kind of human relationship and in al social settings. As a result of the wide range of potential differences between people, the absence of conflict usually signals the absence of meaningful interaction. A conflict can be as small as a perceived disagreement or as large as war. It can originate in the person, between two or more people or between two or more groups. Conflict by itself is neither good nor bad but the manner in which conflict is handled determines whether it is constructive or destructive. A conflict is different from competition and cooperation because in competitive situations, the two or more individuals or parties have mutually inconsistent goals as either party tries to reach its goals, it undermine the attempt of the others to reach theirs. Therefore, competitive situations will by their nature cause conflict. Conflict can also occur in cooperative situation, in which two or more individuals or parties have consistent goals because the manner in which one party tries to reach its goal may undermine the other individual or party. A clash of interests, values, action or directions often sparks a conflict and conflict is also seen as the existence of the clash.
Conflict occurs in different levels, the first is interpersonal conflict. Interpersonal conflict is when two people have incompatible needs; goals, or approaches in their relationship.5 Communication breakdown is often an important source of interpersonal conflict and learning communication skills is valuable in preventing and resolving such difficulties. At the same time, very real differences occur between people that cannot be resolved by any amount of improved communication. Personality conflict refers to very strong differences in motives, values or styles in dealing with people that are not resolvable. For instance, if both parties in a relationship have a high need for power and both want to be dominant in the relationship, there is no way for both to be satisfied, and a power struggle ensures common tactics used in interpersonal power struggles includes the exaggerated used of reward and punishments, deception and evasion, threats and emotional blackmail and flattery or integration. Unresolved power conflict usually recycles and escalates to the point of relationship breakdown and termination.
Therefore, in Nigeria where the research was carried out, the activities that was conducted is to know the Impact of Climate Change and Political Conflict in Africa on Migration and Refugees in Continent.
1.3 Statement of Problems
Investigation revealed that climate change, due to natural gas emissions into the atmosphere, will particularly affect the variability of environment and water resources globally. Considering the expectation of more frequent droughts and floods, the forecast of river flows and its interaction with extreme variation in precipitation becomes crucial. In recent studies climate scientists are debating if the current models are giving a sufficient estimate of future precipitation, and argue even that current ‘models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming’ (Min et al. 2011).
Migration which is a dynamic component of population with reference to movement of people from one geographical area to another, has been on the increase in Africa as immigrants tends to seek for greener pasture and this poses political conflicts in the region. The researcher intends to look at the possible causes of migration to the region with respect to climate change and political conflict in Africa.
1.4 Aim and Objectives of Study
The aim of the study is to examine the Impact of Climate Change and Political Conflict in Africa on Migration and Refugees in Continent. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows:
- To examine the link between climate change, migration, governance and security threats in respect to political conflicts in Africa;
- To analyze the response of the United Nations and other African States in formulating climate change policies to ensure future security and prevent conflict;
- To find out if there are any available policy options and recommends mitigating measures to counter the perceived and real effects of climate change in Africa;
- To ascertain if there is any significant relationship between climate change and political conflict in Africa; and
- To proffer possible solutions to the identified challenges associated with migration, climate change and political conflict in Africa.
1.5 Research Questions
The study came up with research questions so as to be able to ascertain the above stated objectives. The specific research questions for the study are stated below as follows:
- Are there any available policy options and recommends mitigating measures to counter the perceived and real effects of climate change in Africa?
- Is there any significant relationship between climate change and political conflict in Africa?
- What is the link between climate change, migration, governance and security threats in respect to political conflicts in Africa?
- What is the response of the United Nations and other African States in formulating climate change policies to ensure future security and prevent conflict?
1.6 Research Hypothesis
In order to pursue the objective of this study, the following generalized statements have been designed to guide and aids in obtaining the result for the experiment to be conducted. For this work, the null hypothesis will be represented with H0 while the alternative hypothesis will be represented with hypothesis H1.
Hypothesis One
- H0: There is no link between climate change, migration, governance and security threats in Africa.
- H1: There is a link between climate change, migration, governance and security threats in Africa.
Hypothesis Two
- H0: There is no significant relationship between climate change, migration and political conflict in Africa.
- H1: There is a significant relationship between climate change, migration and political conflict in Africa.
1.7 Significance of Study
The findings will be of immense benefit to United Nation Frame Work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as it will help in checkmating lapses and disasters caused by companies operating in the region.
The study will help to educate the mind of every individual, policy makers and the government to see the need to formulate policies for integrated rural development to check rural-urban drift in our society. To the United Nations and other African communities in tackling the problems that force people to leave their region, and so bridging the development gap and increasing the rate of climate change and political conflicts in Africa.
Finally, the findings will be of importance to researchers/students intending to work on related topics on climate change and political conflict.
1.8 Scope of Study
The scope of the research is focused on the Impact of Climate Change and Political Conflict in Africa on Migration and Refugees in Continent.
1.9 Limitations of the Study
During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:
- Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
- Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
- Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
- Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).
1.10 Definition of Terms
Climate Change: Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events).
Migration: This means the movement of people from one place to another.
Political Conflict: A political conflict is a positional difference regarding values relevant to a society - the conflict items - between at least two decisive and directly involved actors, which is being carried out using observable and interrelated conflict means that lie beyond established regulatory procedures and threaten a core.
