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Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria

Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria

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DEDICATION

This research material, titled “Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria” is dedicated to God for His boundless grace and guidance. It is also a tribute to all computer enthusiasts whose contributions made my research journey smoother and enriched my documentation process, making the experience truly fulfilling.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am profoundly grateful to everyone who contributed to the successful completion of this project. I am especially grateful to my Supervisor (Name), the Head of Department (Name), and the Lecturers in the Department of Economics for their invaluable guidance and support. I also acknowledge the contributions of authors and scholars whose works on Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria provided essential insights. Special thanks go to my study area (and any funding organizations, if applicable) for their financial assistance. I am equally thankful to stakeholders, including mentors, teachers, and colleagues, for their encouragement and support. Finally, I deeply appreciate my family and friends for their patience and unwavering support throughout this journey. Your contributions have been instrumental in making this research a reality.



ABSTRACT

It has been noted that the Nigeria economy has gone through series of transformation since independence. Her exchange rate determination has taken various shapes from administratively deformed rate to a market determined rate. These have also be associated with deficient problems. As a result of these problems, the government through the help of the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) tries to regulate the exchange rate system. The adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), where main element was Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market.

The hypotheses of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, External Reserve and Inflation and there is a negative relationship between exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product and Balance of Payment. To validate this hypothesis data gotten from secondary sources were estimated and analyzed among the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS) and Cochrane-Orcutt Method. The independent variables used were balance of payment, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, External Reserve and Inflation, while the dependable variable was exchange rate. There was also a drive towards forecasting exchange rate.

The empirical analysis showed that about 87% of the mean value of the exchange rate is explained by the explanatory variables. This shows that the estimated model regression line is a good fit and the result of the null hypothesis for the forecast was less than the figure of the “t” take, which means it forecast well.


Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

… As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Research hypothesis and questions, Limitation of the study and Definition of technical terms.…

CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

This chapter focuses on the review of related literature. A literature review includes the current knowledge as well as theoretical and methodological contributions to a particular topic. It documents the state of the art with respect to the topic you are writing. It surveys the literature in the topic selected. In this research work the literature review includes the conceputal review, theoretical framework, the review of related literature …

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Prior to your defense, be thoroughly acquainted with your research abstract and the critical elements of Chapter One, including motivation for embarking on this research, problem statement, objectives, and significance. In Chapter Two, be ready to cite at least two references from the literature review. For Chapter Three, you should be equipped to discuss the methodologies, tools, and techniques utilized. In Chapter Four, defend your research by justifying the findings and linking them to your research objectives.

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