1.0 Introduction
This project work is concerned with the statistical analysis of the prices of selected staple food in Imo State (Owerri – Urban) from 2002 – 2011. Since the origin of life, food has always constituted the primary source of human existence. Hence, it can be deduced that food constitutes the basic necessity of life.
However, staple food items taken by any society is constrained by several factors ranging from the cost of cultivation, storage, transportation and labor. These factors contributed to the price of food in any society. This implies that price fluctuations are due to the variations inherent in the various factors that constitutes it.
These fluctuations in the prices of the staple foods in the various parts of the country have been a subject of major controversy in the nation's economic life, since it has affected negatively the lives of fixed income earners and caused inflation in the economy of the country.
The term food can be a substance that can be taken into the body of an animal or plant to maintain its life. Also, since food is the most basic necessary of life, the study will examine the living standard of the urban populace and the prices of these food items and as well assess the amount of economic burden being carried by the masses.
1.1 Statement of Problem
Over the years, the issue of prices of major food items has caused a lot of anxiety to the economic life of many Nigerians and as a result has constituted a major subject of discussion among the policy makers in the country, since it affects low and fixed income earners in the country.
However, the problems of the research work are to investigate whether there is increase or decrease in the trend of selected staple food items to ascertain the current markets prices of these food items.
Another problem of this research work is to investigate whether there are fluctuations on the current price per unit for the selected food items as compared to a base period price per unit for those selected food items.
1.2 Aims and Objectives of Study
In view of the problems been stated by this research work, this study will seek to achieve the following objectives:
- To determine the current market price of these four staple food items.
- To determine the trend in the prices of some selected food items like: rice, beans, yam and garri for the past ten (10) years i.e. From (2002 -2011) using least square method of time series analysis.
- The survey will make forecast for the expected prices of the food items for 2012 financial year.
- Finally to give necessary recommendations from the findings of this research work to the government and the populace.
1.3 Significance of Study
Based on the aims and objectives of this research survey, its significance can be viewed in many respective:
- It will enable the general public especially the fixed income earners to plan ahead due to the fluctuations that may be experienced in the prices of selected staple food items.
- In establishing control price units at the various markets in the state, as a means of creating uniformity in the price of the food items.
- Furthermore, it will enable the statisticians or researcher or policy makers to know the rate of inflation in the country through the estimated price relatives of food items.
- Generally, it will help the policy marker in the state in realizing the usefulness of statistics in keeping up to date on the major food items consumed in the state.
1.4 Scope of Study
This project work on statistical analysis of prices of selected staple food items in Imo State covers the area of Owerri –Urban as case study with a time period of ten (10) years from 2002 -2011. It will also cover the statistical techniques of Time series Analysis and price relatives of index number.
1.5 Limitation of Study
This project is limited to 10 years only, hence the expected precision of the estimates is not fully guaranteed. Efficiency and precision of estimates are dependent upon the number of observations used in the computation of the estimates. As the number increases, so does the precision.
I faced a lot of constraints during the cause of this research work which among others include:
- Inefficient finance was the major problems encountered that leads to many absorptions to be added in out of obtaining the figure.
- Some of the respondents were reluctant to attend to the researchers questions, which took the researcher extra time and effort to convince such persons.
1.6 Statement of Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis and null hypothesis are stated as follows:
- HO: There is no significant increase in trend of quarterly prices of selected four (4) staple food item from (2002 -2011).
- HI: There is a significant increase in trend of quarterly prices of selected four (4) staple food items from 2002 – 2011.
- HO: There is no significant percentage increase in prices of four selected staple food items from (2002 -2011) with 2002 as base year.
- HI: There is significant percentage increase in prices of four (4) selected staple food items from (2002 -2012) with 2002 as base year.
