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The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria

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DEDICATION

This research material, titled “The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria” is dedicated to God for His boundless grace and guidance. It is also a tribute to all computer enthusiasts whose contributions made my research journey smoother and enriched my documentation process, making the experience truly fulfilling.




ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I am profoundly grateful to everyone who contributed to the successful completion of this project. I am especially grateful to my Supervisor (Name), the Head of Department (Name), and the Lecturers in the Department of Economics for their invaluable guidance and support. I also acknowledge the contributions of authors and scholars whose works on The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria provided essential insights. Special thanks go to my study area (and any funding organizations, if applicable) for their financial assistance. I am equally thankful to stakeholders, including mentors, teachers, and colleagues, for their encouragement and support. Finally, I deeply appreciate my family and friends for their patience and unwavering support throughout this journey. Your contributions have been instrumental in making this research a reality.




ABSTRACT

This study empirically examine The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria using an annual time series data spanning from 1981-2012. In this study, modern time series econometric methodology such as Unit Root Testing, Johansson Co-integration test, Vector error co-integration granger causality test(VEC) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where employed to model both the long run and short run relationships between inflation, economic growth, interest rate as (explanatory variables) and private consumption expenditure as (dependent variable).

Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) and Phillips− Perron (PP) test were conducted and the results show that all the data are not stationary at a level but after the first difference they become stationary. The Johansson co-integration test indicates that there exists a long run relationship between the variables for the period of study. However, the VEC Granger Causality result shows that inflation is positively granger causes private consumption expenditure for the period of study and there happens to be no causality flowing from inflation to economic growth, neither is there causality from economic growth to inflation in the short run.

However, the long-run model result shows a negative impact of inflation on economic growth for the study period. It implies that I per cent increase in inflation will result in 0.69 decreases in economic performance (RGDP). It could therefore be recommended that Government together with the central Bank of Nigeria should develop and pursue prudent monetary and fiscal policies that would aim at reducing and stabilizing both the micro and macroeconomic indicators especially inflation targeting, so as to boast the growth of the economy.



The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria



Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

The management of the economy is a major concern of governments all over the world. Governments of countries feel compelled to ensure, through appropriate policies that their economies are managed to achieve desirable macroeconomic objectives. These objectives include: price stability; economic growth; full employment; and balance of payments equilibrium. The achievement of stable prices and attainment of sustainable economic growth had been the central objectives of macroeconomic policies for most countries in the world today. This is so because the achievement of other objectives like full employment and balance of payment equilibrium are also determined by the achievement of price stability and economic growth. (Ohale & Onyema, 2002)

Economic growth is dependent upon the productive effort of a society and investment of resources. An increase in production and investment will lead to economic growth. A country’s rate of growth can be affected by inflation through its effect on investment. An increase in inflation rate reduces the return on investment, both on physical and human capital. Lower returns mean less accumulation and innovation and hence a lower rate of growth. Growth in output of goods and services is a good way of bringing material benefits to the citizens.

This is through fostering those developments such as increased investment, technical progress, increase in demand, amongst others, which are conducive to the growth of the economy. Investment is required to maintain output per head in the face of an increase in the size of labour force. Moreover, increase in consumption expenditure makes producers to respond by increasing their capacity and by so doing, promote economic growth. Nevertheless, as the level of economic activities increase, an economy experiences growth (Ohale & Onyema, 2002; and Apere, 2006).

Private consumption expenditure constitutes the largest component of total consumption expenditure in Nigeria and accounts for more than 65% of the Gross Domestic Product, GDP ( National Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Thus, private consumption expenditure is a core component of aggregate demand.


CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

This chapter focuses on the review of related literature. A literature review includes the current knowledge as well as theoretical and methodological contributions to a particular topic. It documents the state of the art with respect to the topic you are writing. It surveys the literature in the topic selected. In this research work the literature review includes the conceputal review, theoretical framework, the review of related literature …

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Defense Procedure for Economics Researchers


In preparation for defending a project or seminar on The Impact of Inflation on Private Consumption Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, it is imperative that as a nursing student, you demonstrate comprehensive knowledge of your research. The defense process is structured to include presenting your work, answering questions, and illustrating its pertinence. Initially, provide a succinct yet thorough introduction to your research topic, emphasizing its importance and the objectives, ensuring that both the audience and the External Examiner can understand the scope of your study.


Prior to your defense, be thoroughly acquainted with your research abstract and the critical elements of Chapter One, including motivation for embarking on this research, problem statement, objectives, and significance. In Chapter Two, be ready to cite at least two references from the literature review. For Chapter Three, you should be equipped to discuss the methodologies, tools, and techniques utilized. In Chapter Four, defend your research by justifying the findings and linking them to your research objectives.


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During the question and answer segment, the External Examiner may pose questions pertaining to your research. If confronted with a challenging or irrelevant question, respond diplomatically with, “Sorry, Sir/Madam, the question asked is beyond the scope of my study.” Whenever possible, direct your answers back to your research findings to reinforce your expertise.


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